Thoughts about media in Canada

“The Rain Man Methodology”

If you didn’t know already from some previous posts (Data isn’t that evil & TV is a Pokemon), I like Rain Man, for various reasons. Because of his ease with numbers, because Dustin Hoffman is awesome, because of his famous “Uh-Oh”, because I’m borderline autistic (for real).


Everyone remembers the toothpick scene, I think. Or else, Google it. It is obvious that the guy is a wizz with numbers.

Then, there’s the slightly less known Doctor scene

The guy is a number genius, but often cannot apply his skills to real life situations.



Today I’m looking for as many case studies as possible showing the incremental reach of Online Video (OLV). I’ve found a few good ones. And I’ve seen terrible ones.

OLV increased campaign reach by 10%!!!!

We spent $2MM in TV and $500K in OLV. TV alone generated 60% reach and OLV generated 25% reach, total unduplicated reach is 70%. A 10% increase. OLV rocks!!!

Yeeeeaaaahhhh…. hmmm… errr….

*raises hand*

“What if you spent $2.5MM in TV alone? What would’ve been your TV reach? 65%? (then OLV indeed is good) 73%? (then OLV would’ve been bad from a reach standpoint)”


You need to compare apples to apples. Otherwise your case study is bad and you’ve wasted my time.

Of course, you can create a case study that goes like this:

OLV increase reach by 95%!!!!

Indeed, Spending $0 in TV generated 0% reach while spending $750MMM in OLV generated 95% reach, a 95% lift!!!!

You have a Master Degree in Statistics, are paid big money to conduct researches and come up with this?


This is what I call “The Rain Man Methodology”


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